NBA Play-In best bets: Player props galore, plus spread picks for Tuesday 4/16

Lakers vs. Pelicans

Tuesday, April 16, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Lakers to Win -105 (BetMGM)

By Maltman

This line is way too low given these team's history. The reason?

There has been some talk elsewhere about the Lakers losing this game on purpose to avoid the Nuggets in the first round. From a strategic perspective, if they want to advance out of the first round, it might make sense, since they are drawing dead against the Nuggets. But from a competitive perspective, no NBA team is taking the chance they miss the playoffs entirely.

This is the third game with real consequences the Lakers will play against the Pelicans this season. In the first, they blew them out in the in-season tournament by 44 points. In the final game fo the regular season, they won by 16 in a game that was never really close. LeBron knows winning this game gives him extra rest, and when he is well rested and motivated, he brings it and is a force. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are a team that is based on a strong bench with a starting lineup that doesn't work: a disaster for the playoffs.

I'm putting 1u on the Lakers to win tomorrow, and am intrigued by betting the Pelicans to miss the playoffs entirely, but holding off for now.

Pick: Lakers to Win -105

Lakers vs. Pelicans

Herb Jones Over 16.5 points rebounds and assists (DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

I could see the lineup being changed up after Sunday’s blowout loss but one guy who I don’t expect to see any sort of decrease in minutes is Herb Jones. Herb Jones has easily been the Pelicans most consistent player all season long and he is truly a top-5 defender in the NBA. This season he has become a truly good catch and shoot shooter as he is currently knocking down 42% of his threes on the season.

Between CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Jonas Valanciunas the Pelicans have a lot of players who have offensive ability but are inconsistent on the defensive end to put it nicely. Herb Jones is a true two-way stud and he is a guy I feel confident should see 34+ minutes in this game. He cleared this number on Sunday only playing 32 minutes and I expect him to play closer to 36 minutes here in a must win game.

Trust Herb Jones to produce in this high-pressure situation.

Pick: Herb Jones Over 16.5 points rebounds and assists

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Lakers vs. Pelicans

Anthony Davis Over 12.5 rebs (BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

I think this is potentially a big rebound spot for AD.

He left the game on April 9 early with a back injury. Taking that out of the equation, he's gone over 12.5 rebounds in all but two of his last 11. Even including the game he left early — where he finished with three boards in 12 minutes — he's averaging 14.5 boards over his last 12.

The Pels have been signaling less Jonas Valanciunas for months, all pointing to him being a potential non-factor in the playoffs and playoff-like games. Willie Green just prefers small ball, and that'll play right into AD's hand. If the Pels go small, and the Lakers punch these dudes in the mouth again, nobody should stop him on the glass.

Pick: Anthony Davis Over 12.5 rebs

Lakers vs. Pelicans

Zion Williamson under 24.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

Zion was an absolute wrecking ball to end the season averaging 27.1 ppg in his last 10 games without Brandon Ingram before putting up a 12 point dud in the finale against the Lakers in Ingram’s return.

With Ingram he’s averaged 22.5 ppg compared to 24.3 ppg without him this season, so that is working against him today with a 24.5 points line. He’s exceeded this in 2/4 games against the Lakers this season; however, he has not had great volume. In the four games he’s taken 8, 12, 19, and 13 FGAs with 3/4 falling below his average of 15.4 FGAs per game.

The Lakers decided via scheme that Zion was not going to beat them in the finale. While Willie Green can try and coach around that, it is difficult to get away from the defense the Lakers threw at him. The Lakers put multiple players on ball and instead of using AD to cover Zion (especially when Nance was in), they used him as a floater closer to the hoop. This is something Zion struggled with because you simply cannot just bulldoze your way through LeBron, AD, and Rui.

The Pelicans will need to generate offense to keep this game competitive, but I think it’s more likely they’ll find it from Ingram and McCollum than Zion.

I like Zion to go under his 24.5 points prop.

Pick: Zion Williamson under 24.5 Points

Lakers vs. Pelicans

Anthony Davis U0.5 3PT (DraftKings)

By Gilles Gallant

After hitting it this last game on our new show “Nothing But Bet”, I'm going right back to it. This is a great matchup for Davis down low. Facing Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr., who can’t really guard him in the paint plus he finished 13-16 inside the 3-point line two days ago.

In 4 games vs Pelicans, Davis has taken six 3-point attempts and missed all of them. He has only hit a 3-point in 8 of 24 games since the All-Star Break (33%). Based on that output and implied probability, the under should be closer to -200.

Another factor is foul-trouble. AD has gotten four or more fouls in 3 of 4 games vs New Orleans and he had to sit portions of 3Q because of it.

If you’re betting it, you only taking it because “he’s due”, which isn't a great reason to bet anything.

Pick: Anthony Davis U0.5 3PT

Warriors vs. Kings

Tuesday, April 16, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
Draymond Green Over 21.5 points rebounds and assists (FanDuel)

By Chris Baker

This number is too low for Draymond in a must win game. He has been clearing this number all season long averaging 21.8 PRA but he is averaging 27.1 MPG this season. I fully expect him to be closer to 36 minutes here in a must win game. The second major reason I like this angle is because I expect the Kings to blitz Steph Curry and be aggressive in getting the ball out of his hands. This is going to lead for opportunities for Draymond to make plays in the short roll and in the 4 on 3 game.

This could decide the game for the Warriors and I think Draymond will have plenty of potential assists and opportunities to attack the rim in these scenarios. Draymond is also shooting 39% from three this season so it’s not impossible that we see him knock down a couple wide open shots. Dray averaged 23.7 PRA and cleared this number in 4/6 games against the Kings last year in the playoffs so we’ve seen him perform against this team already.

Trust Draymond to see increased usage as we see a concerted effort from the Kings to take Curry out of this game.

Pick: Draymond Green Over 21.5 points rebounds and assists

Lakers vs. Pelicans

D'Angelo Russell over 16.5 Points (BetMGM)

By Joe Dellera

This is a rematch from the regular season finale and there are a few angles I like to carry over into this game.

Russell has been excellent against the Pelicans over the last two seasons and has exceeded this line in 6/7 games with the lone miss at 14 when he played just 22 minutes. In those 7 games he has averaged 21 points.

He’s able to do this effectively due to the defensive schemes the Pelicans employ and even though both Herb Jones and Trey Murphy are strong defenders, they have struggled against Pick and Roll ball handlers. Within the last week Curry (33), Fox (33), Dlo (19), and Scoot Henderson (19) all have found success.

Russell is averaging 19.5 ppg over his last 30 and has exceeded this line in 20/30 to close the season. I like him to do so again tonight.

Pick: D'Angelo Russell over 16.5 Points

Warriors vs. Kings

Warriors -2.5 (BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

Having a playoff like atmosphere, it just feels dumb to pick against the Warriors, even though they look like they're on the ropes.

The Kings homecourt advantage won't phase the main characters on the Warriors, who were 15-6 against the spread as a road favorite, fourth best in the NBA — and they're really second behind Dallas because the top two teams played a combined three games in that scenario.

Golden State, at 27-14 ATS, had the best road record in general, tied with Dallas.

The Kings were just 15-21 ATS as a home favorite.

The data and eye test screams Golden State. So that's the play.

Pick: Warriors -2.5

Warriors vs. Kings

Steph Curry over 4.5 Rebounds (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

The Warriors and Kings play in a rematch from the first round last season. One player to keep an eye on is Stephen Curry who will be the focal point of the Warriors’ offense.

The Warriors are differently composed this year, but one of the ways they try to kickstart the offense has been if Curry can get the rebound to kickstart a fast-break. This allows the Warriors to operate in transition more effectively while getting the defense on their heels. In his last two Playoffs, he has averaged 5.2 rebounds per game. This has really played out against the Kings overall. He has averaged 5.7 rebounds per game in 15 matchups against the Kings while exceeding 4.5 in 11/15 games.

I like Curry’s points and considered betting PR, but I expect the Kings to sell out with Keon Ellis and Davion Mitchell to try and slow down Steph today.

Curry can contribute in a multitude of ways, but in this game, I expect him to make a concerted effort on the glass in a win or go home game.

Pick: Steph Curry over 4.5 Rebounds

Warriors vs. Kings

Keon Ellis over 9.5 points (Bet365)

By Chris Baker

Ellis has seen his usage and minutes skyrocket since the Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter injuries and he has pretty consistently cleared this # in non-blowout games over the past 2 weeks. He is shooting 69% of his looks from three this season and converting on 40% of those looks. Overall, he has been hyper efficient at the combo guard spot shooting 60% effectively from the field (94th percentile) this season. Additionally, the Warriors rank 25th in opponent three point attempt rate allowed on the season.

Ellis should also draw Steph Curry on offense and or Chris Paul. Neither guy offers much in the way of length or defensive resistance so I expect him to be able to shoot over these guys and find his opportunities driving the ball. Finally, from a top down perspective, the Kings need other guys to step up to supplements Fox scoring as they just will not be able to win this game unless some of these role players contribute to the scoring effort. I think Ellis is best positioned to avoid the long athletic wings of Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Kuminga here, and he should be able to draw Klay, Curry, and CP3 and exploit those matchups consistently.

Trust Ellis to clear 9.5 points here.

Pick: Keon Ellis over 9.5 points

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